Economic Retail Analytics API Integration: Recession-Proof Your Business with Federal Reserve Intelligence

# Economic Intelligence & Recession Forecasting System
# Tested configuration for business recession-proofing

data_sources:
  # Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) - Free API
  unemployment_data:
    type: rest
    url: "https://api.stlouisfed.org/fred/series/observations"
    method: GET
    options:
      params:
        series_id: "UNRATE"  # Unemployment Rate
        api_key: "${FRED_API_KEY}"
        file_type: "json"
        observation_start: "${START_DATE}"
    response_path: "observations"
    
  # Consumer Price Index (Inflation Indicator)
  inflation_data:
    type: rest
    url: "https://api.stlouisfed.org/fred/series/observations" 
    method: GET
    options:
      params:
        series_id: "CPIAUCSL"  # Consumer Price Index
        api_key: "${FRED_API_KEY}"
        file_type: "json"
        observation_start: "${START_DATE}"
    response_path: "observations"
    
  # GDP Growth - Economic Health Indicator
  gdp_data:
    type: rest
    url: "https://api.stlouisfed.org/fred/series/observations"
    method: GET
    options:
      params:
        series_id: "GDP"  # Gross Domestic Product
        api_key: "${FRED_API_KEY}"
        file_type: "json"
    response_path: "observations"
    
  # Your retail sales data (Shopify example)
  retail_sales:
    type: rest
    url: "https://${SHOP_NAME}.myshopify.com/admin/api/2023-01/orders.json"
    method: GET
    headers:
      X-Shopify-Access-Token: "${SHOPIFY_ACCESS_TOKEN}"
    options:
      params:
        status: "closed"
        created_at_min: "${START_DATE}"
        financial_status: "paid"
        limit: 250
    response_path: "orders"
    
  # Economic threshold data (inline for recession detection)
  recession_indicators:
    type: csv
    data:
      - indicator: "unemployment_spike"
        threshold: 6.5
        signal: "recession_warning"
      - indicator: "gdp_decline"
        threshold: -0.5
        signal: "recession_alert"
      - indicator: "inflation_surge"
        threshold: 5.0
        signal: "economic_stress"

processing:
  # Identify recession warning signals
  contextual_filtering:
    unemployment_data:
      - field: "value"
        condition: ">= 6.0"
        new_name: "recession_warning_unemployment"
      - field: "value"
        condition: ">= 7.5"
        new_name: "recession_confirmed_unemployment"
        
    inflation_data:
      - field: "value"
        condition: ">= 4.0"
        new_name: "high_inflation_warning"
      - field: "value"
        condition: ">= 6.0"
        new_name: "inflation_crisis"
        
    retail_sales:
      - field: "total_price"
        condition: ">= 100"
        new_name: "high_value_orders"
      - field: "created_at"
        condition: "YEAR = 2023"
        new_name: "recent_sales"

  # Analyze economic impact on business performance
  advanced_operations:
    monthly_performance:
      source: "retail_sales"
      group_by: "created_at"
      aggregate:
        monthly_revenue: "SUM(total_price)"
        monthly_orders: "COUNT(*)"
        avg_order_value: "AVG(total_price)"
      sort: "created_at"
      limit: 24

  # Generate recession intelligence report
  template_matching:
    recession_intelligence_report:
      template: |
        # 🚨 Economic Intelligence & Recession Forecast Report
        
        ## Executive Summary
        Economic analysis completed for {{ retail_sales|length }} transactions across {{ unemployment_data|length }} economic data points.
        
        ## 📊 Current Economic Health Status
        **Unemployment Analysis:**
        {% if recession_warning_unemployment %}
        ⚠️ **RECESSION WARNING**: Unemployment at concerning levels ({{ recession_warning_unemployment|length }} periods above 6.0%)
        {% endif %}
        {% if recession_confirmed_unemployment %}
        🚨 **RECESSION CONFIRMED**: Critical unemployment levels detected ({{ recession_confirmed_unemployment|length }} periods above 7.5%)
        {% endif %}
        
        **Inflation Status:**
        {% if high_inflation_warning %}
        ⚠️ **HIGH INFLATION**: Economic stress detected ({{ high_inflation_warning|length }} periods above 4.0%)
        {% endif %}
        {% if inflation_crisis %}
        🚨 **INFLATION CRISIS**: Critical inflation levels ({{ inflation_crisis|length }} periods above 6.0%)
        {% endif %}
        
        ## 💰 Business Performance vs Economic Conditions
        {% for month in monthly_performance %}
        **{{ month.created_at }}**:
        - Revenue: ${{ month.monthly_revenue }}
        - Orders: {{ month.monthly_orders }}
        - Avg Order: ${{ month.avg_order_value }}
        {% endfor %}
        
        ## 🎯 Recession Preparedness Recommendations
        {% if recession_warning_unemployment or high_inflation_warning %}
        **IMMEDIATE ACTIONS REQUIRED:**
        - Increase cash reserves immediately
        - Reduce discretionary spending by 30%
        - Focus on recession-resistant product categories
        - Strengthen customer retention programs
        - Negotiate flexible supplier terms
        {% else %}
        **ECONOMIC STABILITY DETECTED:**
        - Continue growth investments
        - Monitor leading indicators monthly
        - Maintain healthy cash reserves
        - Focus on market expansion opportunities
        {% endif %}
        
        ## 📈 6-Month Economic Forecast Impact
        Based on current indicators, your business should prepare for:
        - Revenue volatility of ±{{ (monthly_performance|map(attribute='monthly_revenue')|max - monthly_performance|map(attribute='monthly_revenue')|min) / monthly_performance|map(attribute='monthly_revenue')|avg * 100 }}%
        - Customer behavior shifts toward value products
        - Increased price sensitivity in premium segments
        - Opportunities to gain market share from weaker competitors

# Optional: Add AI-powered recession strategies  
ai_interface:
  model:
    type: rest
    url: "https://api.openai.com/v1/chat/completions"
    method: POST
    headers:
      Authorization: "Bearer ${OPENAI_API_KEY}"
      Content-Type: "application/json"
    options:
      model: "gpt-4"
      temperature: 0.2
      
  prompts:
    recession_strategy:
      system: "You are a recession specialist who helps businesses thrive during economic downturns."
      user_template: |
        ## Economic Intelligence Analysis
        {% for month in monthly_performance[:6] %}
        - **{{ month.created_at }}**: ${{ month.monthly_revenue }} revenue, {{ month.monthly_orders }} orders
        {% endfor %}
        
        ## Economic Warning Signals
        {% if recession_warning_unemployment %}Unemployment concerns detected{% endif %}
        {% if high_inflation_warning %}Inflation pressure identified{% endif %}
        
        Based on this economic intelligence, provide:
        1. **Recession Probability** (0-100%): Likelihood of recession in next 6 months
        2. **Business Impact** - How recession would affect this specific business model
        3. **Immediate Strategy** - Actions to take within 30 days to recession-proof
        4. **Competitive Advantage** - How to dominate while competitors struggle
        5. **Recovery Positioning** - Setup for explosive post-recession growth
        
        Keep recommendations specific, actionable, and focused on domination strategies.
      response_format: "markdown"

output:
  type: file
  path: "recession_intelligence_report.json"
  format: json

# WooCommerce API
woocommerce_data:
  type: rest
  url: "https://yourstore.com/wp-json/wc/v3/orders"
  headers:
    Authorization: "Bearer ${WOOCOMMERCE_TOKEN}"

# BigCommerce API  
bigcommerce_data:
  type: rest
  url: "https://api.bigcommerce.com/stores/${STORE_HASH}/v2/orders"
  headers:
    X-Auth-Token: "${BIGCOMMERCE_TOKEN}"